This is why Kenyans need to recalibrate their expectations:
1. Inflation is still rising, now at 9.2%
2. Forex reserves & Ksh still falling
3. OPEC+ cutting production – higher fuel prices
4. Met forecasts depressed rains
5. Inflation tax already here
6. World bank has cut GDP forecasts
7. World is headed into a global recession – Europe is cutting spending
8. Interest rates rising – CBR now 8.5%
9. Debt service costs rising & Eurobond 2024 due in 21 months
10. GoK having difficulties raising debts internally & externally
11. Banks experiencing liquidity crisis.
12. No subsidies on consumption- Electricity prices likely to go up
13. Austerity measures to save ksh300B in FY 2022/23 expected soon
14. CBC transition to junior secondary due in 2 months. Chaos & uncertainty galore
15. Cash strapped GoK begging food for 4.5M facing starvation.
In the short term, things are going to get worse. In the mid term, the worse outcomes in the short term will get worse.
